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{{STREAMS}}!@ Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens ((NFL)) Live ((FREE)) On TV Channel



The first day of the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs includes a Saturday night AFC Wild Card showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs.



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The Dolphins limp into the playoffs coming off two straight losses to close out the regular season. They were crushed by the Baltimore Ravens 56-19 in Week 17 and lost to the Buffalo Bills in their season finale, falling to the No. 6 seed in the AFC and blowing their chance at a division title. Injuries have been a major factor for Miami, especially on offense. The Dolphins rank second in the NFL in points per game (29.2) but have managed just five touchdowns over their last three games. The Chiefs led the league in scoring last year but fell off dramatically in 2023, finishing 15th in points per game at 21.8 while averaging 7.4 fewer points per game. Despite long stretches of offensive lethargy, Kansas City still won the AFC West for the eighth year in a row. The defending Super Bowl champs went 11-6 and essentially had a bye in Week 18 with a meaningless game against the Los Angeles Chargers, enabling them to rest many of their starters. The third-seeded Chiefs have the fifth-shortest Super Bowl championship odds at +1000. The sixth-seeded Dolphins are tied for sixth on the futures board with +1800 title odds. Moneyline We will back Kansas City at home on the moneyline for a few reasons, starting with Miami’s injury issues on defense. The Dolphins have been forced to sign three veteran pass rushers just this week, adding 36-year-old Bruce Irvin, 34-year-old Justin Houston and 27-year-old Malik Reed to a unit crushed by health issues. They will try to help replace Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel, who combined for 70 quarterback pressures and 23.5 sacks despite Phillips missing the second half of the season. Miami has injury woes elsewhere as well. Cornerback Xavien Howard has been ruled out with a foot injury, while safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott were non-participants in practice earlier this week with knee and calf issues, respectively. The Dolphins’ defense did play admirably against the Bills last week, allowing just two touchdowns. However, Buffalo averaged more than six yards per play and piled up 473 yards of offense. The week before that, Miami endured its worst defensive performance of the season, surrendering 56 points and nearly nine yards per play to the Ravens. The Chiefs’ offense is worth believing in this week. Kansas City showed signs of life in its last game that meant something, albeit against a shaky Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Chiefs gained seven yards per play and Isaiah Pacheco ran for 130 yards on 18 carries. Kicking also favors Kansas City, which has a legitimate weapon in Harrison Butker. He was a perfect 12-for-12 this season on field goal attempts of at least 40 yards, including 5-for-5 on kicks from 50-plus yards. Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders isn’t as reliable, going 11 for 15 on kicks from 40-plus yards. Playoff games are often close and come down to field goals, so the Chiefs have a significant edge here. Recent history also favors Kansas City. The Chiefs have won five straight playoff openers, all at home. Kansas City also beat Miami earlier this year, pulling out a 21-14 win in Germany in Week 9. The Chiefs are also healthier and better rested for this game after sitting key starters in Week 18. The skepticism around Kansas City is valid and supported by a full season of uneven offensive play, but the smart money is on the Chiefs prevailing at home against a fading Dolphins team. Point Spread This game will be Patrick Mahomes’ 12th playoff start at home, and Kansas City has been favored on the point spread in all of them. The Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread in those contests, and we expect them to improve on that record here. Miami has struggled against quality opponents this year, going just 1-5 against teams that finished above .500. Three of the losses were by double digits, and the lone victory required a game-winning field goal as time expired. Despite its flaws, Kansas City still finished with a winning record and qualified as a “quality” opponent. Its defense is the main reason (seventh in DVOA). The Chiefs finished second in the NFL in both sacks (57) and pressure rate on opponents’ dropbacks (27.8%). Only the Cleveland Browns had opponents score on a lower percentage of offensive drives, and no defense allowed fewer explosive plays than Kansas City’s. A fully loaded Dolphins offense would be a stiff challenge for the Chiefs. But even if wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert play after missing last week with injuries, it’s hard to imagine Miami torching a defense that held it to just 14 points the last time they met. Kansas City has had its issues offensively. The Chiefs lead the league in drops (2.6 per game) and plummeted from second in red zone touchdown percentage last season to 17th this year. That said, Kansas City’s offensive line ranked second in lowest sack rate, and that was tops in pass block win rate. Without their best pass rushers, the Dolphins will struggle to pressure Mahomes. With Mahomes facing a depleted defense at home, we recommend laying the points with the Chiefs. Over/Under While the Over is tempting here with two potent offenses, we’re leaning towards the Under on the Over/Under. Their November matchup ended with a combined point total of 35, falling well short of the 51.5 Over/Under. Kansas City failed to score in the second half of that game, which has been an issue all season. The Chiefs averaged just 7.5 second-half points this season, tied for the third-lowest in the NFL. Miami has had similar issues lately, scoring just one second-half touchdown over its last four games. Expect that trend to continue this week for the Dolphins. Kansas City allowed just 7.4 points per game in the second half – the best figure in the league. The Chiefs were even stingier at home, yielding 6.9 second-half points per game. Even if these offenses start quickly, the scoring will likely slow down as the game progresses, especially given the weather conditions. Forecasters are calling for temperatures in the single digits, which could make passing and kicking difficult. Both teams may be forced to run the ball more than usual, resulting in fewer plays and fewer points. We’d be betting on the Under regardless, but the weather makes a low-scoring game even more probable.

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